The Cause Of Riots And The Price of Food: If we don't reverse the current trend in food prices, we've got until August 2013 before social unrest sweeps the planet, say complexity theorists

What causes riots? That's not a question you would expect to have a simple answer.

But today, Marco Lagi and buddies at the New England Complex Systems Institute in Cambridge, say they've found a single factor that seems to trigger riots around the world.

This single factor is the price of food. Lagi and co say that when it rises above a certain threshold, social unrest sweeps the planet.

The evidence comes from two sources. The first is data gathered by the United Nations that plots the price of food against time, the so-called food price index of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN. The second is the date of riots around the world, whatever their cause. Both these sources are plotted on the same graph above.

This clearly seems to show that when the food price index rises above a certain threshold, the result is trouble around the world.

This isn't rocket science. It stands to reason that people become desperate when food is unobtainable. It's often said that any society is three square meals from anarchy.

But what's interesting about this analysis is that Lagi and co say that high food prices don't necessarily trigger riots themselves, they simply create the conditions in which social unrest can flourish. "These observations are consistent with a hypothesis that high global food prices are a precipitating condition for social unrest," say Lagi and co.

In other words, high food prices lead to a kind of tipping point when almost anything can trigger a riot, like a lighted match in a dry forest.

On 13 December last year, the group wrote to the US government pointing out that global food prices were about to cross the threshold they had identified. Four days later, Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in Tunisia in protest at government policies, an event that triggered a wave of social unrest that continues to spread throughout the middle east today.

That leads to an obvious thought. If high food prices condition the world for social unrest, then reducing the prices should stabilise the planet.

But what can be done to reverse the increases. Lagi and co say that two main factors have driven the increase in the food price index. The first is traders speculating on the price of food, a problem that has been exacerbated in recent years by the deregulation of the commodities markets and the removal of trading limits for buyers and sellers.

The second is the conversion of corn into ethanol, a practice directly encouraged by subsidies.

Those are both factors that the western world and the US in particular could change.

Today, the food price index remains above the threshold but the long term trend is still below. But it is rising. Lagi and co say that if the trend continues, the index is likely to cross the threshold in August 2013.

If their model has the predictive power they suggest, when that happens, the world will become a tinderbox waiting for a match.

Ref: arxiv.org/abs/1108.2455: The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East

NWO & Globalism :: 512 Views

NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP

Our newsletter is released only to notify you about the exclusive stories on the site, exclusive leads on investigations and alerts on projects like video documentaries released by New World Order Report

Email Address:

RADIO ARCHIVE

Click here to read Jonathan Elinoff's bio

Latest radio interviews:

4/29/2012 11AM - Jonathan Elinoff joins Craig Silvermann on the Ross Kaminsky Show on Denver's 850KOA to discuss the Pat Sullivan story, confession and newly released information

4/27/2012 6AM - Jonathan Elinoff a freelance videographer and investigator who broke the Pat Sullivan meth for sex story is in studio with Peter and Julie Hayden investigative journalist for Fox 31 joins Peter and Jonathan to discuss the ugly Pat Sullivan story. Is Pat Sullivan a smaller piece in a larger puzzle of deviant sexual corruption?

4/27/2012 7AM - The show continues to heat up this hour; Bryan Maass of CBS 4 News joins the show to provide his take on the Pat Sullivan interrogation tape. What did Pat Sullivan admit to and what accusations could be corroborated. Why did the District Attorneys decide to proceed with a plea deal instead of a trial? Julie Hayden, Jonathan Elinoff, Bryan Maass and Peter Boyles discuss what is true, what is just and did Pat receive a sweetheart deal, there is contention and disagreement about the Sullivan interrogation tape and the four engage in great discourse and discussion.

4/27/2012 8AM - Peter opens up the show to calls this hour and the lines light up with many listeners weighing in on the Pat Sullivan story. This hour has many voices, views and opinions and discussion between Peter, Jonathan and callers. What do you think about the sentencing that former Arapahoe County Sherriff Pat Sullivan received for his sex for meth scandal?

4/6/2012 6AM - Peter Boyles Show - Jonathan Elinoff the investigative reporter who was instrumental in breaking the Pat Sullivan meth for sex scandal joins Peter for the full hour to discuss his investigation into the dark world of drugs and male prostitution. Jonathan and Peter delve into the egregious story of sex, drugs, coercion, abuse of power and possible murder.

4/6/2012 8AM - Investigative reporter for Fox 31 Julie Hayden joins the show and John Elinoff returns to discuss the Pat Sullivan story and the possibility of a connection between Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold of the Columbine massacre. The Sullivan Story is sure to continue and seems to get stranger and more deviant.

4/6/2012 9AM - Tom Martino addresses a caller about the alleged sex trafficking that was observed in the Sullivan investigation at the start of the show...

4/4/2012 8AM - Peter Boyles Radio Show Interviews Jonathan Elinoff and Tom Martino about Pat Sullivan Meth for Sex Scandal

4/4/2012 9AM - Tom Martino continues the Peter Boyles Interview with Jonathan Elinoff and Tom Martino about Pat Sullivan Meth for Sex Scandal

4/4/2012 3PM - Caplis and Silverman Radio Show Interviews Jonathan Elinoff about the Pat Sullivan Meth for Sex Scandal

2/2/2012 3PM - Jonathan Elinoff interviewed on KGNU in Boulder and Denver Colorado about his investigation into former Sheriff Pat Sullivan in the "Meth for Sex" scandal, with host Shareef Aleem

12/16/2011 8AM - Peter Boyles Radio Show Interviews Jonathan Elinoff and Tom Martino with release of info

12/16/2011 7AM - Peter Boyles Radio Show Interviews Jonathan Elinoff and Tom Martino with release of info

12/2/2011 9AM - Tom Martino & The Troubleshooter Network Radio Show Interviews Jonathan Elinoff with release of info

12/1/2011 3PM - Caplis and Silverman Radio Show Interviews with release of info

12/1/2011 10AM - Tom Martino & The Troubleshooter Network Radio Show Interviews Jonathan Elinoff with release of info

12/1/2011 9AM - Tom Martino & The Troubleshooter Network Radio Show Interviews Jonathan Elinoff with release of info

12/1/2011 - 8AM - Peter Boyles Radio Show Interviews Jonathan Elinoff with release of info

11/30/2011 5PM - Caplis and Silverman Radio Show Interviews with release of info

11/30/2011 4PM - Caplis and Silverman Radio Show Interviews with release of info

11/30/2011 11AM - Tom Martino & The Troubleshooter Network Radio Show Interviews Jonathan Elinoff with release of info

11/30/2011 10AM - Tom Martino & The Troubleshooter Network Radio Show Interviews Jonathan Elinoff with release of info

11/30/2011 9AM - Tom Martino & The Troubleshooter Network Radio Show Interviews Jonathan Elinoff with release of info

11/30/2011 8AM - Peter Boyles Radio Show Interviews Jonathan Elinoff with release of info

11/30/2011 - Truth Jihad Radio with Kevin Barrett interviews Jonathan Elinoff on the following up with the now breaking story of Pat Sullivan and the scandal related to it

11/16/2011 - Truth Jihad Radio with Kevin Barrett interviews Jonathan Elinoff on the first breaking story of Pat Sullivan and the scandal related to it

9/22/2011 - Tom Martino Show with Special Guest Jonathan Elinoff: Discussion about underground facility at D.I.A.

9/8/2011 - Tom Martino Show with Special Guest Jonathan Elinoff: Tom Martino wakes up to 9/11

9/8/2011 - Peter Boyles Show with Special Guest Jonathan Elinoff: Discussion about the Core of Corruption sequels as well as 9/11 in general and Elinoff's research on it

1/27/2011 - WKRP with Host Rob McNealy with Guest Jonathan Elinoff, Editor of New World Order Report. Click here for the show information and bio Click here for the 1/27/2011 Show

To listen to any other radio interviews or archived radio shows, check our Archives section or click here.

SUPPORT US

&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;br&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;

New World Order Report is proud to offer our award winning documentary, Core of Corruption: In the Shadows. Click the ad below to order the DVD

Watch Core Of Corruption: In the Shadows for FREE Below: