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Mega-list compiled on voting records of seats up for grabs in Congress. See who doesn't represent you

From:
Reddit

Reddit.com user "DrowningSink" has compiled a mega-list on the voting records of vulnerable seats in Congress. To explain how I deduced which seats were "vulnerable," I used the Cook Partisan Voting Index, or PVI.

PVI, per Wikipedia definition, "is a measurement of how strongly an American congressional district or state leans toward one political party compared to the nation as a whole."

"The index for each congressional district is derived by averaging its results from the prior two presidential elections and comparing them to national results. The index indicates which party's candidate was more successful in that district, as well as the number of percentage points by which its results exceeded the national average. The index is formatted as a letter followed by a plus sign and then a number; in a district whose CPVI score is R+2, a generic Republican presidential candidates would be expected to receive 2 percentage points more votes than the national average. Likewise, a CPVI score of D+3 shows that a generic Democratic candidate would be expected to receive 3 percentage points more votes than the national average."

In a nutshell, the higher a PVI score is, the more likely that district is to vote for that political party in the upcoming elections. Generally, any score greater than or equal to 5 (D+5, R+5) is considered a "safe" seat. For this reason, the mega-list below only contains PVI scores 4 and lower (with the exception of some incumbents who are at a significant PVI-disadvantage).

With that in mind, all "vulnerable" candidates have their voting history on controversial legislation listed here.

Enough talk; this list is long enough as is:

Key:

  • D+# or R+# indicates a PVI lead by # percentage points over the national average
  • X indicates a "yea" vote
  • A blank space indicates a "nay" vote
  • NP indicates the politician was not yet a member of Congress
  • NV indicates the politician did not vote, or abstained
  • Italics indicates the politician will not run for reelection

Senate seats to be determined by a 2012 election with a PVI less than 5:

Senator Party PVI score PATRIOT Act '01 PATRIOT Act '06 PATRIOT Act '11 NDAA for 2012 PROTECT IP (co-sponsor)
McCaskill (MO) D D+4 NP NP X X  
Menendez (NJ) D D+4 NP X X X X
Stabenow (MI) D D+4 X X X X  
Bingaman (NM) D D+2 X        
Casey (PA) D D+2 NP NP X X X
Klobuchar (MN) D D+2 NP NP X X X
Kohl (WI) D D+2 X X X X X
Heller (NV) R D+1 NP NP   X  
Brown (OH) D R+1 NP NP   X  
Nelson (FL) D R+2 X X X X X
Webb (VA) D R+2 NP NP X X  

"Across the board" senators: Senator Kohl (D-WI), Senator Nelson (D-FL)

Senate seats to be determined by a 2012 election with an incumbent at a significant PVI-disadvantage:

Senator Party PVI score PATRIOT Act '01 PATRIOT Act '06 PATRIOT Act '11 NDAA for 2012 PROTECT IP (co-sponsor)
Brown (MA) R D+12 NP NP X X  
Snowe (ME) R D+5 X X X X  
Tester (TE) D R+7 NP NP   X  
Manchin (WV) D R+8 NP NP   X  
Conrad (ND) D R+10 X X X X  
Nelson (NE) D R+13 X X X X X

"Across the board" senators: Senator Nelson (D-NE)

House seats with a PVI less than 5:

Representative Party PVI score PATRIOT Act '01 PATRIOT Act '06 PATRIOT Act '11 NDAA for 2012 SOPA (co-sponsor)
Barletta (PA-11) R D+4 NP NP X X  
Cardoza (CA-18) D D+4 NP   X X  
Gerlach (PA-6) R D+4 NP X X X  
Higgins (NY-27) D D+4 NP X X X  
Kind (WI-3) D D+4 X   X X  
Perlmutter (CO-7) D D+4 NP NP   X  
Sanchez (CA-47) D D+4     NV NV  
Bass (NH-2) R D+3 X X X X  
Cooper (TN-5) D D+3 NP NP X X X
Costello (IL-12) D D+3 X        
Cravaack (MN-8) R D+3 NP NP X X  
Duffy (WI-7) R D+3 NP NP X X  
Hinojosa (TX-15) D D+3 X NV X    
Larsen (WA-2) D D+3 X     X  
Meehan (PA-7) R D+3 NP NP X X  
Michaud (ME-2) D D+3 NP        
Reichert (WA-8) R D+3 NP X X X  
Schilling (IL-17) R D+3 NP NP X X  
Connolly (VA-11) D D+2 NP NP   X  
DeFazio (OR-4) D D+2          
Dent (PA-15) R D+2 NP X X X  
Fitzpatrick (PA-8) R D+2 NP X   X  
Heck (NV-3) R D+2 NP NP X X  
Murphy (CT-5) D D+2 NP NP      
Peters (MI-9) D D+2 NP NP X    
Yarmuth (KY-3) D D+2 NP NP      
Barrow (GA-12) D D+1 NP X X X X
Bishop, Sanford (GA-2) D D+1 X X X X  
Boswell (IA-3) D D+1 X X X X  
Chabot (OH-1) R D+1 X X X X X
LoBiondo (NJ-2) R D+1 X X X X  
Schrader (OR-5) D D+1 NP NP   X  
Stivers (OH-15) R D+1 NP NP X X  
Tiberi (OH-12) R D+1 X X X X  
West (FL-22) R D+1 NP NP   X  
Bishop, Timothy (NY-1) D EVEN NP   X X  
Cuellar (TX-28) D EVEN NP   X X  
Guinta (NH-1) R EVEN NP NP X X  
Herrera Buetler (WA-3) R EVEN NP NP   X  
Latham (IA-4) R EVEN X X X X  
McCotter (MI-11) R EVEN NP X X X  
Paulsen (MN-3) R EVEN NP NP X X  
Roskam (IL-6) R EVEN NP NP X X  
Upton (MI-6) R EVEN X X X X  
Biggert (IL-13) R R+1 X X X X  
Critz (PA-12) D R+1 NP NP X X  
Hultgren (IL-14) R R+1 NP NP X X  
Kinzinger (IL-11) R R+1 NP NP X X  
McNerney (CA-11) D R+1 NP NP   X  
Owens (NY-23) D R+1 NP NP NV X X
Runyan (NJ-3) R R+1 NP NP X X  
Walsh (IL-8) R R+1 X X X    
Walz (MN-1) D R+1 NP NP   X  
Young (FL-10) R R+1 X X X NV  
Donnelly (IN-2) D R+2 NP NP X X  
Ellmers (NC-2) R R+2 NP NP X X  
Farenthold (TX-27) R R+2 NP NP X X  
Gibson (NY-20) R R+2 NP NP   X  
Hanna (NY-24) R R+2 NP NP   X  
Johnson (OH-6) R R+2 NP NP X    
Kissell (NC-8) D R+2 NP NP X X  
Manzullo (IL-16) R R+2 X     X  
Ribble (WI-8) R R+2 NP NP X    
Rogers (MI-8) R R+2 X X X X  
Ryan (WI-1) R R+2 X X X X  
Walberg (MI-7) R R+2 NP NP X    
Webster (FL-8) R R+2 NP NP X X  
Wolf (VA-10) R R+2 X X X X  
Benishek (MI-1) R R+3 NP NP X X  
Bilbray (CA-50) R R+3 NP NP X X  
Bono Mack (CA-45) R R+3 X X NV X X
Camp (MI-4) R R+3 X X X X  
Dreier (CA-26) R R+3 X X X X  
Hayworth (NY-19) R R+3 NP NP X X  
Kelly (PA-3) R R+3 NP NP X X  
LaTourette (OH-14) R R+3 X X X NV  
Lance (NJ-7) R R+3 NP NP X X  
Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18) R R+3 X X X X  
Yoder (KS-3) R R+3 NP NP X X  
Adams (FL-24) R R+4 NP NP X X  
Canseco (TX-23) R R+4 NP NP X X  
Forbes (VA-4) R R+4 X X X    
Gallegly (CA-24) R R+4 X X X X X
Giffords (AZ-8) D R+4 NP NP NV NV  
Grimm (NY-13) R R+4 NP NP X X  
King (NY-3) R R+4 X X X X X
Kline (MN-2) R R+4 NP X X X  
Petri (WI-6) R R+4 X X X X  
Renacci (OH-16) R R+4 NP NP X X  

"Across the board" representatives: Chabot (R - OH-1), Gallegly (R - CA-24), King (R - NY-3)

House seats with an incumbent at a significant PVI-disadvantage:

Representative Party PVI score PATRIOT Act '01 PATRIOT Act '06 PATRIOT Act '11 NDAA for 2012 SOPA (co-sponsor)
Turner (NY-9) R D+5 NP NP X X  
McIntyre (NC-7) D R+5 X X X X  
Peterson (MN-7) D R+5     X X  
Altmire (PA-4) D R+6 NP NP X X  
Hochul (NY-26) D R+6 NP NP NP X  
Holden (PA-17) D R+6 X X X X X
Rahall (WV-3) D R+6     X X  
Schuler (NC-11) D R+6 NP NP X X  
Ross (AR-4) D R+7 X X X X  
Chandler (KY-6) D R+9 NP X X X  
Boren (OK-2) D R+14 NP X X X  
Matheson (UT-2) D R+16 X   X X  

"Across the board" representatives: Holden (D - PA-17)

Sources:

tl;dr - Here are politicians in potentially vulnerable seats, that voted for the PATRIOT Act and all of its reauthorizations, the 2012 NDAA, and co-sponsor either SOPA, or PROTECT IP:

  • Representative Chabot (R - OH-1) [PVI = D+1]
  • Representative Gallegly (R - CA-24) [PVI = R+4]
  • Representative King (R - NY-3) [PVI = R+4]
  • Representative Holden (D - PA-17) [PVI = R+6]
  • Senator Kohl (D-WI) [PVI = D+2]
  • Senator Nelson (D-FL) [PVI = R+2]
  • Senator Nelson (D-NE) [PVI = R+13]

Again: Italics indicates the politician will not run for reelection. This is for comparison purposes, particularly if you want to compare them to the people who are interested in running for that seat in Congress and their own positions. I had originally titled this self-post with the word "seats" in place of "Congressmen," so sorry for any confusion.


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